A coalition of Syrian opposition groups, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and supported by Turkish-backed groups in the Syrian National Army (SNA), launched a surprise offensive against the Syrian government’s armed forces on November 27, 2024. The operation, codenamed Deterrence of Aggression, targeted government forces in Aleppo and Hama Governorates, marking the first major military campaign by opposition forces since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire. This development is a significant shift in the Syrian civil war, which has been ongoing for years.
The HTS, a key player in the opposition, has been a major force in the region, and its decision to launch this offensive is a clear indication of its growing strength and influence. The group’s ability to coordinate with other opposition forces, including the Turkish-backed SNA, has allowed it to launch a concerted attack on government positions. As the situation continues to unfold, it is clear that the HTS and its allies are making significant gains, with reports of government forces collapsing in the face of the opposition’s advance.
On November 29, 2024, HTS forces entered Aleppo, capturing most of the city as government forces disintegrated. This rapid advance has given the opposition control of a key urban center, and has allowed them to push deeper into government-held territory. The next day, opposition forces made further gains, capturing dozens of towns and villages as they advanced toward Hama. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), which has been the mainstay of the government’s military, has been unable to withstand the opposition’s onslaught, and its collapse has allowed the HTS and its allies to make rapid progress.
The implications of this offensive are significant, and will likely be closely watched by regional and international powers. The United States, which has been a key player in the region, will likely be monitoring the situation closely, and may be considering its options for responding to the developing crisis. The sitting U.S. president will likely be weighing the potential consequences of intervention, and considering the potential benefits and drawbacks of supporting the opposition or the government. As the situation continues to unfold, it is clear that the U.S. will play a key role in shaping the outcome of the conflict.
The role of other regional powers, including Turkey and Iran, will also be important in determining the outcome of the conflict. Turkey, which has been a key supporter of the opposition, will likely continue to provide military and financial backing to the HTS and its allies. Iran, on the other hand, has been a key supporter of the Syrian government, and will likely be working to counter the opposition’s gains. The Iranian government’s hostile actions in the region have been a major concern for the U.S. and its allies, and its response to the current crisis will be closely watched.
As the situation in Syria continues to unfold, it is clear that the coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the outcome of the conflict. The opposition’s advance has created a new dynamic on the ground, and has raised questions about the government’s ability to withstand the pressure. The U.S. and other regional powers will be watching the situation closely, and considering their options for responding to the crisis. One thing is certain, however: the situation in Syria will continue to be a major focus of international attention, and will require a coordinated and effective response from the international community to prevent further instability and violence.
Looking ahead, the key question will be how the government and its allies respond to the opposition’s gains. Will they be able to regroup and launch a counterattack, or will the opposition’s momentum continue to build? The answer to this question will depend on a variety of factors, including the level of support provided by regional powers and the ability of the opposition to coordinate its efforts. As the situation continues to evolve, it is clear that the coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the outcome of the conflict, and the future of Syria.
